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A Mad Dash for City Hall in the Windy City


A police officer at the site of a shooting in Chicago, Aug. 12, 2018.

A police officer at the site of a shooting in Chicago, Aug. 12, 2018.


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joshua lott/epa-efe/rex/shutters/EPA/Shutterstock

Visitors to Chicago’s gleaming downtown might never know that the Windy City faces a fiscal crisis driven by unfunded pension liabilities as well as major challenges with crime and corruption. But local voters should know the full story as they head to the polls Tuesday to pick a new mayor.

Thirteen candidates—mostly Democrats—are vying to replace Mayor Rahm Emanuel, whose eight years in office have been dogged by controversies including a major teachers strike and allegations of police brutality. His unexpected decision not to run for re-election created a wide-open field to replace him.

Former Chicago Police Superintendent Garry McCarthy, former Chicago Public Schools CEO Paul Vallas, Illinois Comptroller Susana Mendoza and 2011 runner-up Gery Chico are among the bigger names in the race. Bill Daley, brother of former Mayor Richard Daley, is one of the front-runners. He says he’ll explore a commuter tax and is open to raising real-estate transfer taxes on high-end properties. He also has a plan to use $1 billion in subsidies to try to create 100,000 new manufacturing jobs in the city.

Cook County Board President Toni Preckwinkle, who is near the top of the polls, says she is running to “take on the Old Boys’ Club” of Chicago politics. The six policy priorities she touts on her campaign website include “environmental justice,” but not fixing the city’s fiscal problems.

Lawyer and activist Lori Lightfoot has the endorsement of the Chicago Sun-Times. If she wins, she will become the city’s first gay and first black female mayor. Fiscal reform isn’t one of her issues either, but cannabis legalization is.

With such a crowded field, no candidate seems likely to come close to winning a majority of votes. An April runoff will decide the race. Hopefully the candidates who make it through to the second round of voting will face up to the core issue facing the city: looming fiscal collapse.

Chicago bears $28 billion in unfunded pension liabilities and billions more in traditional debt. Illinois is also stuck in a prolonged fiscal crisis thanks to unfunded public pensions. So is Cook County. So are Chicago’s schools and park system. Chicagoans are suffocating under unfunded debt liabilities from every level of government totaling $130 billion, according to local analyst Ted Dabrowski. The state Supreme Court has forbidden pension cuts for existing workers, so the next mayor may be forced to raise taxes by even more than what Mr. Daley is proposing. That’s not good news in a city where the combined state and local sales-tax rate is already 10.25%.

Rates of violent crime also remain stubbornly high in Chicago. While the number of murders fell significantly in the past two years, the city still has more murders annually than New York and Los Angeles combined. At the same time, it has paid out hundreds of millions of dollars in police-misconduct settlements, much of it with borrowed money.

Chicago has a longstanding problem with nonviolent crime as well—specifically, public corruption. In January, federal prosecutors filed attempted extortion charges against Alderman Ed Burke, a longtime Democratic power broker who is married to a state Supreme Court justice. But for all its problems, much has gone right in Chicago in the past decade. The Loop remains a key financial center, and Chicago is gaining young, educated workers. New skyscrapers are joining the city’s already impressive skyline. Tourists still come in droves.

The backdrop of Tuesday’s election is a strange mixture of urban glitter, violent crime and woeful governance. Chicago has proved itself different from other postindustrial American cities. It has a strong economic base and continues to draw talent and investment. The Windy City’s potential is unlimited if it gets its act together. But doing so will require fresh thinking and a real commitment to reform—qualities noticeably missing among the city’s permanent political class and the baker’s dozen of candidates vying to be the next mayor.

Mr. Renn is a Manhattan Institute senior fellow.



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