Global Economy

At Istanbul Summit, Russia Seeks Role as Mediator of Syria War



ISTANBUL—Russia used a four-nation summit here on Saturday to cement its new role as a Middle East power broker and attract European funding for rebuilding Syria after its war ends.

It was the first time that Russian President Vladimir Putin, German Chancellor Angela Merkel, French President Emmanuel Macron and Turkish President Recep Tayyip Erdogan met to discuss Syria, bringing together four leaders with interests in ending the war and resolving the refugee crisis it sparked.

The summit centered on preconditions for resurrecting an international peace process, with the four leaders calling for creating a special committee which will be tasked to draft a new Syrian constitution.

Russia’s pre-eminent role was on display during the post-summit press conference, when questions touched on the tenuous cease-fire brokered by Messrs. Putin and Erdogan in the northern province of Idlib in September with the creation of a demilitarized zone.

“We are counting on the Turkish side to ensure completion in the near future of the withdrawal of opposition from the demilitarized zone,” Mr. Putin said. “If radical elements come across this goal, carrying armed provocations in the Idlib area, Russia reserves the right to provide effective support to decisive actions by the Syrian government to eliminate this hotbed of terrorist threat.”

The meeting capped months of Russian initiatives to portray a measure of stability in Syria after its 2015 intervention helped turn the war in President Bashar al-Assad’s favor.

Now, Mr. Putin appears to favor a political settlement over prolonged, bloody warfare.

Moscow’s favored solution would be an international agreement recognizing Mr. Assad as the country’s ruler and returning millions of refugees to revive economic activity. But that is currently a remote prospect. Western countries so far refuse to engage with the Assad regime and Syria remains unsafe for refugees to return, according to the United Nations refugee agency.

The EU stresses that it will assist in the reconstruction of Syria only when a “comprehensive, genuine and inclusive political transition…is firmly under way.”

However, the four heads of state agree that there is no military solution to the Syrian war, only a negotiated settlement, and may be able to lay the groundwork for further talks, said Andrey Kortunov, head of the Russian International Affairs Council, a state-run think tank.

“This is one of very few areas where Russia and major European players can, if not eliminate, then narrow the gap between them,” he said. “There has never been a frank discussion about specific preconditions for European involvement in Syria.”

As Mr. Assad’s troops, backed by Russian air power and Iran-allied ground forces, have recaptured most territory once held by antigovernment rebels, Russia has made moves to suggest the country is returning to normal.

In July, Moscow sent a proposal to Washington to jointly repatriate some 1.7 million Syrian refugees from Lebanon, Turkey and Europe. Though it never took off, the proposal illustrated how Moscow’s strategy for Syria often aligns with that of Mr. Assad.

“The return of refugees would give Assad legitimacy,” said Kheder Khaddour, a nonresident scholar at the Carnegie Middle East Center in Beirut. To incentivize refugee returns, Mr. Assad earlier this month granted amnesty from prison to army deserters, albeit without exempting them from the military service many fled from in the first place.

Mr. Assad’s other military ally, Iran, pursues an agenda that is sometimes at odds with his.

Iran has propped up irregular militias of Syrians and foreigners that answer to Tehran over the Syrian government. Tehran wants influence in Damascus as a bulwark against Israel and a channel to the Hezbollah militia in Lebanon, Mr. Khaddour said.

By contrast, Russia has worked to centralize power in Damascus and strengthen Mr. Assad’s regular army, and mediates between Syria and Iran, and Israel.

“Russia wants the whole country to be stable. It wants regional stability,” Mr. Khaddour said.

Most recently, Russia successfully negotiated, with Turkey, a demilitarized zone in the northern Syrian province of Idlib to temporarily avert an offensive by the Assad government on the last rebel stronghold there.

Russia has reached for influence beyond Syria, too, often stepping in where the U.S. footprint has diminished. It has sold S-400 antiaircraft missile systems to Turkey, as Ankara’s relationship with the NATO alliance soured. Earlier this year, Russia tried to sell $1 billion worth of arms at favorable terms to debt-saddled Lebanon, a deal eventually scuttled by the U.S.

And as Saudi Arabia comes under intensified global pressure over the murder of journalist Jamal Khashoggi, Mr. Putin has refrained from criticizing the kingdom, unlike the U.S., where relations with the Saudis have become strained.

“There is an official statement by the king, a statement by the crown prince. Essentially, nobody should have any reason not to believe it,” Kremlin spokesman Dmitry Peskov said in a call with reporters Friday.

The Saudi version of events has changed several times; from denying Mr. Khashoggi’s death to claiming he died in a brawl to now acknowledging there is evidence that his killing was premeditated.

Write to Sune Engel Rasmussen at sune.rasmussen@wsj.com



READ SOURCE

Leave a Reply

This website uses cookies. By continuing to use this site, you accept our use of cookies.