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Boeing's Woes Create an Opportunity for IAG


© Reuters.

Investing.com — The grounding of Boeing’s 737 MAX planes is causing headaches for the airlines that have quickly come to rely on them. For one airline in particular, it could even cost it its independence.

Shares in Norwegian Air Shuttle (OL:), which has tried to revive the model of discount transatlantic flights, have fallen some 22% since the Ethiopia Airlines disaster. The 737 MAX makes up 11% of Norwegian’s 164-strong fleet, and the airline had expected to have over 70 of them by the end of 2021. Norwegian’s CEO has indicated it will seek compensation from Boeing (NYSE:).

Boeing has told airlines it expects to release a software fix for the 737 MAX’s flight-control system by the end of the month, the BBC reported on Tuesday. If it can keep to that deadline, then Norwegian could reasonably hope that its planes will be flying again before the Easter holidays.

But if they stay grounded into the summer tourist season, the cost in terms of lost revenue and short-term leases of replacement planes will be painfully high.

Idle planes put extra pressure on Norwegian, which is already struggling to make its model of discount long-haul flights profitable. Its operating loss nearly doubled to 3.85 billion Norwegian kroner ($450 million) last year, as an environment of intense competition and overcapacity stopped it passing on the cost of higher fuel prices. The company had to raise 3 billion kroner in fresh capital at a deep discount in February after British Airways’ parent IAG (LON:) walked away from a potential takeover. Norwegian’s chief executive Bjørn Kjos had rejected two offers from IAG as undervaluing the business.

IAG chief executive Willie Walsh hasn’t ruled out making a third bid but said two weeks ago it was “unlikely”.

But with Norwegian now down 84% from the NOK 330 price tag it had when IAG turned its back – it raises the question of whether the owner of BA and Spain-based Iberia may be tempted to return to the table. The stock is half the price it was when IAG considered it interesting (even if the rights issue has increased the number of shares outstanding).

With a market value of only NOK6.31 billion, the airline could represent a very cheap option for IAG to strengthen its position on the key transatlantic route. The question for Walsh is whether it will get even cheaper if the 737 MAX stays grounded for longer than Boeing says.

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