Shares of Boston Beer (NYSE:SAM) are +39% over two years, while rivals Molson Coors (NYSE:TAP) and Anheuser-Busch (NYSE:BUD) have slipped.

But it’s not due to great beer sales, Barron’s says. “All of the growth has come from successes in hard cider and, more recently, spiked tea and seltzer.” That’s a problem, because spiked seltzer in particular is about to become crowded as bigger brewers enter the market.

Other headwinds include shrinking U.S. alcohol consumption, and grocers doing business with an increasing number of local and small brewers.

UBS analyst Sean King sees 9% earnings growth in the coming years, and shares shaving 10%.


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