Central government receipts crept up just 0.4% year-on-year in October, consistent with the general evidence that the economy had a challenging start to the fourth quarter. The main evidence of the economy’s softness was in corporation tax receipts falling 6.2% year-on-year in October.

On the basis of April-October, public sector net borrowing is headed for £45.6bn in 2019/20 – which would be above a likely adjusted OBR forecast of around £41.0bn. However, it may well come in less than this because much of the overshoot has been due to higher public spending, which may be influenced by timing effects.


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