Opinions

Coronavirus outbreak likely to peak in late April: PHFI President


India’s coronavirus outbreak may peak in late April, said
K Srinath Reddy, president of the Public Health Foundation of India (PHFI). Reddy, who’s on the executive group of the steering committee of the WHO-led solidarity trial on Covid-19, spoke to Teena Thacker.
Edited excerpts from the interview:

Are we close to peaking in India?

We have definitely slowed down the rate of rise of the curve. Due to the lag period between exposure, clinical manifestation and diagnosis, I think we will peak in late April.

Have we seen community transmission yet in India?

Every affected country has experienced that phase. We can and should delay it and decrease the impact as much as we can. The judgement on when our situation qualifies for that label is a decision taken on analyses of information from multiple data sources. Those analyses are being performed by the health ministry, which is collating that information.

What do you think about containment efforts in India? Do you think we should continue with the lockdown?

Lockdown had several benefits. It addressed the urgent need to markedly slow down the transmission of the virus if the chain cannot be completely broken by this measure alone. It prevented a sudden upsurge of cases that would have overwhelmed us.

‘We Need to Strengthen District-wise Surveillance’

It also gave the public health, healthcare and social systems across this large country time to prepare, with strengthened capacity, to meet the challenge of a continuing epidemic with better organised and more efficient response. It also forged a unity of purpose between central and state governments, overcoming political differences through consultations, leading to consensus and collective response. The decision to extend the lockdown, fully or partially and for what period, appears to have been discussed between the PM and CMs. It will be necessary to plan for a slow and staged release of the lockdown rather than an abrupt end. We have to be determined in our intent but flexible in our approach as we let real-time analyses of a changing situation guide these decisions rather than stick to a pre-fixed plan.

Is the virus less virulent in India? Will the weather help in reducing the numbers, as expected?

Viruses do mutate when they pass between species and travel through a large population of any host species. While the virus strain spreading in India appears to have undergone minor structural alterations on its surface, there is no evidence that these have affected its virulence. If it has indeed changed its behaviour to become less virulent, we will know as more data on the numbers of truly infected persons and deaths becomes available. So far, both WHO (World Health Organization) and ICMR (Indian Council of Medical Research) believe there is no evidence to show that the virus in India is different in its behaviour. There is some evidence to suggest that this virus, like other coronaviruses, may ebb in peak summer.





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