Infectious-disease models have been approximating reality better and better in recent years.
Based on cutting-edge modeling, researchers predict 300,000 coronavirus cases by next week.
Working backwards from confirmed infections in countries other than mainland China, researchers at Imperial College London, who advise the World Health Organization, estimated that Wuhan had 1,000 to 9,700 symptomatic cases as of Jan. 18. Three days later, all of mainland China had officially reported 440 cases. This supports concerns of global health officials that China is undercounting.
In a more recent model run, Jonathan Read of England’s University of Lancaster and his colleagues estimated “that only about 1 in 20 infections were being detected.”