The main worry among GBP traders is that the UK could face an economically turbulent ‘no-deal’ Brexit, both of which are considered undesirable.
Most recently, UK police chiefs have warned that a bad Brexit deal could jeopardise public safety as it would limit access to EU-wide databases and security powers.
In a letter addressed to Home Secretary Sajid Javid, the Association of Police and Crime Commissioners warned: “The UK and EU share a common and ever evolving threat picture.
“[In the event of no Brexit deal,] considerable additional resource would be required for policing to operate using non-EU tools and that such tools would be sub-optimal – potentially putting operational efficiency and public safety at risk.”
With UK institutions and agencies seemingly lining up to warn against the effects of a ‘no-deal’ Brexit, these latest comments have put even more pressure on UK negotiators to secure a favourable separation package.
Over in the Eurozone, this morning’s German data has been mixed but this hasn’t prevented a slight rise in the euro pound exchange rate.
Industrial output levels have slowed by more than expected in June, but the trade balance reading for the same month has shown a larger surplus.
Commenting on the former German industrial data, Alexander Krueger of Bankhaus Lampe said: “That’s not a great result but it could have been worse.
“In contrast to the first quarter, industrial production supported growth in the second quarter.”
Looking ahead, the next economic data of note which could affect the pound euro exchange rate will be Thursday morning’s European Central Bank (ECB) economic bulletin.
This will provide a picture of Eurozone economic activity over recent months, as well as a forecast on how the single currency bloc could perform in the future.
If the general outlook is positive, then the euro could rise further against the pound.
The next UK data comes on Friday morning, when GDP growth rate estimates will be published.
If they prove to be better than forecast, or even in line with expectations, this could give the pound a lift.