bond

Soaring government debt is now inevitable. It’s nothing to fear


It is clear Boris Johnson has favoured his health advisers as he looks to ease the lockdown. Worries about a second coronavirus outbreak have clinched victory over concerns about keeping much of industry and commerce in a state of suspended animation.

After weeks of pleading by the Treasury to get the nation back to work, No 10 has opted to play it safe with people’s health, and particularly older people. And no wonder, after a hapless first few months in which the UK leapt to fourth place in probably the most ignominious league table in modern history – that of Covid-19 deaths per 100,000 population – behind Belgium, Spain and Italy.

There are plenty of Tory MPs who believe there is a bigger threat to health, and possibly their electoral chances, from a damaged economy. They give equal billing to the threat from a flurry of corporate bankruptcies, a steep rise in unemployment and a ballooning debt pile that would dwarf the legacy left by the 2008 banking crash.

And it is this last concern – that of the mortgage to end all mortgages being left on the nation’s balance sheet – to which ministers have turned and begun to debate in the most heated terms. Without a doubt, a fear of debt is the main constraint on funding the current rescue operation and on making a boost to investment once the crisis is over.

If you are a traditional Conservative MP with a picture of Margaret Thatcher on the constituency office wall, you believe debts must be repaid, much like a domestic property mortgage.

This is the household analogy Thatcher used to great effect during her years as prime minister, despite it being economically illiterate, and only ever deployed as a way to keep public spending in check and state power limited.

Now, to tackle the coronavirus outbreak and nurse the economy until a vaccine is mass-produced, there is no choice but to watch the gap between spending and income soar.

The Institute for Fiscal Studies estimates the government will need to borrow an extra £200bn in this financial year alone and is heading for a debt-to-GDP ratio of 95% from the current level of around 83%.

A debt mountain that falls just short of the UK’s £2.2 trillion annual income is a level of borrowing that butts up against a significant psychological barrier – the three-figure debt-to-GDP ratio.

In the mind of a conservative thinker, only countries that are reckless, and possibly morally dubious, have spent so much that their debts exceed 100% of GDP.

In practical terms, a country with high debt levels can become the target of panicky investors, who can orchestrate a strike that means no one lends it money.

A government borrows by issuing bonds with a maturity date, and it needs fresh lenders to step in and buy the debt from existing lenders each time it matures. “Bond vigilantes” make money from orchestrating such bond-buying strikes and are ever watchful for countries that have left themselves vulnerable.

The euro crisis is still fresh in many people’s minds, when Italy and Greece found themselves bond-market pariahs. Italy’s debts equalled 130% of GDP. Greece found itself with a debt-to-GDP ratio of 180%.

George Osborne’s career as chancellor, and his adherence to a debilitating austerity programme, was built on warnings that Britain could suffer the same fate as Greece and Italy. Like his hero Thatcher, he persuaded an anxious nation that debt was to be feared.

Yet it was never true and is even less true today. Central to this argument is the path of interest rates. For the last 20 years in the UK and Europe, and the last 40 years in the US, interest rates on government debt have tumbled. Even though governments have borrowed more over time, the cost of financing each pound of debt has fallen.

There was always the concern that interest rates could increase at some time, but it was never likely and most economists agree it cannot happen now, at least not for a decade or more. There are too many savings in the world looking for a safe haven for the demand for government bonds ever to fall, especially relative to stock markets or lending to corporations. That means the bond vigilantes have no leverage, except in the developing world. For the richer countries, there is always someone to borrow from.

So, as the US and Japan have learned, it is not the size of your debts but how much they cost to service that matters. No wonder the US government debt-to-GDP ratio is at 110% and rising while Japan is a darling of the bond markets even though its government has a debt-to-GDP ratio above 250%.



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