Global Economy

Southwest monsoon may start withdrawing this month end


NEW DELHI: The southwest monsoon is expected to start withdrawing towards the end of this month, nearly a month behind schedule, the weather office said on Friday. Monsoon normally begins to withdraw from September 1.

This year’s delayed withdrawal is likely to help the country avoid a drought situation, even as countrywide rainfall is hovering on borderline drought conditions, measuring 10% below normal levels since the beginning of the monsoon season.

“Withdrawal of southwest monsoon is likely to commence from parts of northwest India towards the end of September,” the India Meteorological Department (IMD) said in a weather forecast.

After making a strong start with an early arrival on May 29, the southwest monsoon season has been rife with anomalies this year.

A 12-day hiatus in the circulation of monsoon currents in June sent the rainfall figures dwindling, while agriculturally crucial months of July and August also recorded below normal rains.

ET reported on September 19 that the southwest monsoon this year could see an exception of recording below normal rains in all the months of June to September monsoon season, an event recorded after 14 years.

The ongoing spell of rainfall over northwest India could improve rainfall figures in the region, which has registered 7% below normal rains since June 1.

Meanwhile, above normal rains are also likely over Maharashtra, Gujarat, Andhra Pradesh, Telangana, Chhattisgarh, Odisha, Karnataka and Tamil Nadu till September 26.

The overall rainfall of the country has been dampened by below normal rains in the east and northeast region, where rainfall deficiency measured up to 24%.

Withdrawal of monsoon in the last ten days of September is quite normal, but there could be a problem for crops ready for harvest if it moves beyond early October, which looks likely as per present weather conditions, said Madan Sabnavis, chief economist at Care Ratings.

“At the time of withdrawal of monsoon, we tend to see stormy weather,” he said. “This coincides with the time the crop is ready to harvest which could be damaged because of strong winds. Already we have seen that the acreage for certain crops is low. So, that could exacerbate the situation further.”

However, Sabnavis added that the borderline drought conditions do not look like a problem at present, since acreage for most crops barring cotton and pulses has been satisfactory.

The national weather office has forecast a normal monsoon season this year, but independent weather forecasting agency Skymet in August said India could see below normal rainfall season this year, with rainfall measuring up to 92% of average.





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