Opinion polls in recent weeks have consistently signaled that Sanchez’s socialists could win the largest share of the vote — but not enough for the party to govern alone.
The party has been overseeing a minority government with just 84 seats in the 350-member Congress of Deputies, Spain’s lower house of parliament. In this election, it could gain as many as 54 seats — but that would still fall short of the 176 seats a party needs to gain a majority.
Opinion polls have consistently showed that the PSOE leads by a wide margin and is seen with between 28 to 31% of the votes. The PP is trailing with around 20-24% of the vote. Ciudadanos is seen with around 15% and Podemos with around 12-13%. The Vox party is seen getting around 9-11% of the vote.
A large number of voters (25-30%) remain undecided as to who to vote for, and this could have a significant impact on the final result.
Speculation is already mounting over what alliances PSOE could seek to enable it to form a government. Anna Rosenberg, partner and head of Europe and U.K. at Signum Global Advisors, told CNBC that the socialists were benefiting from the fragmentation on the right.
“People are really scared of the rise of the right-wing parties and that will mobilize voters that might not have been expected to vote before. Sanchez has also actually done quite well and doesn’t represent the status quo,” she said.