Sturgeon independence plans suffer major blow over Scottish budget and reliance on UK

In the five years, up to 2020 spending averaged £1,550 more per person in Scotland while revenues per person were £325 lower.

According to Mr Phillips: “This pattern looks set to persist and means that if Scotland were to become independent, it would likely be faced with the task of dealing with a large budget deficit, making spending cuts or tax increases necessary in its first five to ten years to get it down to more manageable levels.

“The longer-term outlook would depend crucially on how the post-independence Scottish economy performed – faster growth, while easier to promise than deliver, could in principle more than offset the loss of fiscal transfers from the rest of the UK.”

Mr Phillips adds that the outlook for Scotland would also depend on what sort of “independence deal” was negotiated.


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