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The tipping point for people to ditch their cars is 2030, report says


The year 2030 will be the global tipping point for sustainable mobility in the world’s largest cities, a report claims. 

Private car journeys will decrease 10 per cent over the next decade as more people opt to walk, cycle, use public transport and vehicle share – and the ageing population will reduce the need for car ownership, the study predicts.

The research ranked 31 major cities from around the world that are transforming quickest, with Manchester topping the list. London dwindles in the middle of the standings.

Tipping point in 2030: A new study has predicted that walking, cycling and green public transport will overtake private car use in major cities within a decade

Tipping point in 2030: A new study has predicted that walking, cycling and green public transport will overtake private car use in major cities within a decade

In 10 years’ time, greener means of transport will represent 49 per cent of all trips undertaken within cities, versus 46 per cent for private cars.

The remaining 5 per cent will be taxi journeys, ride sharing or ride hailing trips and less common modes of inner-city transportation, including ferries.

That’s according to the Mobility Futures report by Kantar – a UK-based data, insights and consulting company, which produced the research for the UN-Habitat World Urban Forum in Abu Dhabi this week.

It surveyed residents in major cities and estimated the impact bans on vehicles use, driving charges, green mobility schemes and increased pedestrianisation would have.

More than 20,000 people were polled about their current travel experiences and desired modes of transport. 

The study also comprised of a series of panel discussions with 53 mobility experts from 14 countries.

The results showed that cycling is on track to become the fastest-growing mode of transport, predicted to increase globally by 18 per cent between now and 2030. 

Walking and public transport usage will rise by 15 per cent and 6 per cent respectively. 

Thousands of infrastructure projects around the world, such as Boris Johnson’s £5billion investment to expand cycle lanes and improve bus services in Britain, will contribute to these new mobility behaviours, it said. 

Kantar projects that across the 31 cities it surveyed, as many as 36.7 million residents will change the way they travel over the next decade. 

How did UK cities rank?   

Just two UK cities were included in the survey, with Manchester predicted to see the biggest shift in transport usage, followed by Moscow and São Paulo. 

London was in 17th spot. 

Ranking at the top of our Transforming Cities Index, a fifth of Manchester’s population (which represents around 601,000 residents) will change the way they travel between now and 2030, given the scale of changes that will take place over the next decade.

Cycling and walking will be the fastest growing modes of transport, supported by Greater Manchester’s plan to invest £137.3million to make the city more pedestrian and cycle friendly.  

The GM2040 Transport Strategy also aims to increase the attractiveness of pedestrian routes by reallocating road space to add to the extensive network of footpaths. ​

The city is also investing in its public transport infrastructure, including the expansion of the Metrolink system. 

All of these initiatives feed into Manchester’s commitment to a 13 per cent year-on-year reduction in emissions from 2018 onwards and to be carbon neutral by 2038.

Cycling and walking will be the fastest growing modes of transport, supported by Greater Manchester's plan to invest £137.3million to encourage it

Cycling and walking will be the fastest growing modes of transport, supported by Greater Manchester’s plan to invest £137.3million to encourage it

London already has a very high share of public transport usage, making it the most environmentally-friendly commuter city in Europe, the report said

London already has a very high share of public transport usage, making it the most environmentally-friendly commuter city in Europe, the report said

As for London, which is noted as being ‘one of the most tech-ready cities globally’, Kantar predicts that 1.2million people (11.8 per cent of the population) will change the way they travel between now and 2030. 

London already has a very high share of public transport usage, making it the most environmentally-friendly commuter city in Europe.

But as the population continues to grow, there is increasing pressure on the underground and bus network, while traffic and congestion is also a problem even despite the arrival of the Ultra Low Emission Zone and its expansion next year. 

With this in mind, there are some key initiatives underway to improve capacity on buses, trains and tubes, and shift car use to active travel. 

The Top Transforming Cities by 2030

1. Manchester – 184.9%

2. Moscow – 183.4%

3. Sao Paulo – 172.4%

4. Paris – 160.0%

5. Johannesburg – 157.3%

=6. Guangzhou – 154.6%

=6. Milan – 154.6%

8. Montreal – 120.3%

9. Amsterdam – 119.7%

10. Shanghai – 118.5% 

Ranking is based on the shift in share of travel across car, cycling, walking and public transport. The cities that see the biggest shift score highest, while an index of 100 represents the global average.

Source: Kantar

The Mayor’s Transport Strategy is aiming for 80 per cent of trips to be made by public transport by 2041.

London residents are more open to changes than citizens of other cities around the world – and have relatively high levels of trust in the Government to deliver a sustainable future for mobility, the survey found.

The trend in London, particularly among young adults, is to not own a car, with cycling and walking being the preferred mode of getting around.

London was also among the top three cities (along with Amsterdam and LA) with people that are more open to autonomous vehicles.

Guillaume Saint, global automotive and mobility lead at Kantar said: ‘The coming decade will see a significant shift in the way people move around the urban environment, with a clear trend away from car usage towards greener modes of transport. 

‘Technology will be the foundation for shaping a more sustainable urban future. But all cities are different – what works in New York may not resonate in Tokyo – which is why it is imperative to put the human at the centre of the research to better understand and predict future mobility behaviour, and identify future opportunities.’

Rolf Kullen, mobility director at the insight firm, added that cities around the world ‘need to plan strategically’ for the evolving mobility needs of their population. 

‘For change to happen, it must be led by both the cities and the people – citizens will not act alone,’ he explained.

‘Municipalities must ‘mind the gap’ by balancing infrastructure investment with robust urban mobility policies and awareness initiatives to gain the trust and backing of their citizens. 

‘Our research shows there could be significant political upside for politicians who get urban transport right.’

People want to see 'mobility hubs' on the outskirts of cities where drivers can leave their polluting cars and make their way into urban locations using greener methods, such as bikes

People want to see ‘mobility hubs’ on the outskirts of cities where drivers can leave their polluting cars and make their way into urban locations using greener methods, such as bikes

Amazon is currently testing a fleet of 'Scout' robots that can carry out automated 'last mile' deliveries in urban areas

Amazon is currently testing a fleet of ‘Scout’ robots that can carry out automated ‘last mile’ deliveries in urban areas

What Infrastructure do people want? 

The report also quizzed city residents about the infrastructure they would like to see implemented where they live.

Among the most common requests was for multiple transport modes, such as buses, trams, bikes and car sharing, to be accessible using a single app and ticket to streamline multi-modal travel into a user experience that matches the convenience of a personal car.

Locals also called for ‘mobility hubs’ on the outskirts of cities to enable commuters to park their polluting cars and then use zero-emission vehicles like electric buses, e-bikes and e-scooters, to help decrease urban congestion and pollution.

It also saw significant backing for autonomous parcel delivery, with self-driving vehicles used to reduce unsuccessful delivery journeys that significantly increase traffic congestion. 

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