Bitcoin has been on a roller-coaster over the last few weeks, with the price often yoyoing up to thousands of dollars in minutes.
The bitcoin price is down almost half from its year-to-date highs, with the bitcoin and crypto market stuck on a downward trend for last six months.
Now, researchers have recorded “unusual” moves in the bitcoin futures market, with premium rates rising even as bitcoin prices fall—suggesting the bitcoin price could be headed higher next year.
Between November 29 and December 2, the premium on bitcoin futures increased over 30% while the bitcoin price dropped around 6%.
“The premium rates on bitcoin March 2020 contracts have been increasing, although the bitcoin price has decreased,” analysts at Arcane Research found, adding, “this is not a common observation.”
Researchers also reported that bitcoin’s implied volatility is set to rise to over 70% by June 2020, up from 55% for the middle of December 2019.
“This clearly show that traders anticipate changes in the bitcoin price. To put this in perspective, gold options for June 2020 trade with an implied volatility of 11.5%.”
Despite bitcoin’s recent sell-off, many bitcoin and cryptocurrency market watchers are feeling good about next year—bitcoin and crypto heavyweights have been predicting a sudden price surge, technical data is looking positive, and recent developments suggest 2020 could be a big year for bitcoin.
Meanwhile, the looming bitcoin halving event, set for May next year, will see the number of bitcoin rewarded to miners cut by half and some expect this to boost the bitcoin price—though others disagree.