Opinions

Trump's Successful Pivot to Asia



President Trump signed legislation on the last day of 2018 designed to strengthen America’s role in the Indo-Pacific region. The Asia Reassurance Initiative Act is the most comprehensive statement in a generation of America’s regional interests. It authorizes expenditures of $1.5 billion annually through 2023 to enhance U.S. military, diplomatic and economic engagement with East and Southeast Asian allies such as Japan, India, South Korea and Taiwan. Unlike the Obama administration’s ballyhooed “pivot” to Asia, Mr. Trump’s turn to the East seems to have rattled China’s cage.

The president is regularly attacked by critics for withdrawing from the global stage and undermining the American-led world order, but his goal in Asia is consistent with that of previous administrations from both parties: preserving what the Trump administration calls a “free and open Indo-Pacific.” Mr. Trump has energetically pursued this goal, overturning significant parts of America’s Indo-Pacific policy dating back to the 1970s. His decision to levy tariffs on $250 billion of Chinese goods made clear that Washington is dropping the fiction that China is a fair trading partner. The U.S. military has increased freedom-of-navigation operations and flyovers near China’s new military bases in the South China Sea.

The administration has also abandoned the policy of looking away from Chinese cyberaggression. Moreover, by negotiating directly with North Korean leader Kim Jong Un, Mr. Trump has broken the model of negotiating multilaterally in the hope of compelling Beijing to push Pyongyang to denuclearize.

Mr. Trump is correct that America’s Asia policy needed a reset, and China’s global ambitions make it unlikely that future American presidents will return to business as usual. But if Mr. Trump fails to arrest China’s advances or North Korea’s nuclear successes, his pivot may ultimately diminish U.S. interests in the Indo-Pacific region.

Mr. Trump signed the new law, co-sponsored by Sens. Cory Gardner (R., Colo.) and Edward Markey (D., Mass.), a day before the 40th anniversary of the normalization of U.S.-China relations. The symbolic timing of this gesture is a clear signal that the administration sees China as the world’s greatest threat to U.S. interests. But even without the new law, Mr. Trump’s get-tough attitude toward Beijing sets him apart from his predecessors.

The administration has at last begun retaliating against China’s persistent cyber-espionage and global meddling. In October Belgian authorities arrested a Chinese intelligence officer and extradited him to the U.S., where he will soon face trial for stealing trade secrets from American aviation companies. In December, at the request of the U.S., Canada detained Meng Wanzhou, a senior executive of telecommunications giant Huawei. She is free on bail, but federal prosecutors in the Eastern District of New York are looking to have her extradited so they can charge her with helping companies circumvent American sanctions against Iran.

Though few in Washington will admit it publicly, policy makers on both sides of the aisle see Mr. Trump’s bold stance as long overdue. Yet his Asia pivot is also risky. Some worry he will rush into an agreement with North Korea, perhaps withdrawing U.S. troops from the Korean Peninsula in return for a promise of denuclearization. If Mr. Trump caves in to pressure from Pyongyang, Seoul and Beijing to reach a bad deal, it may be impossible to convince Tokyo and other allies that Washington won’t pack up its troops and leave them to face the Chinese threat on their own.

Arrests and tariffs alone won’t force a change of heart in Beijing. Yet the U.S. administration likely has the upper hand. Global opinion is turning against China and the world’s second-largest economy is suddenly sputtering. Mr. Trump should therefore push for as detailed and verifiable a commitment as possible from Beijing to open its markets further, uphold international law, and crack down on state-sponsored hacking. Because prior Chinese pledges have proved hollow, if Beijing fails to follow through this time, Mr. Trump should immediately restrict the number of Chinese students permitted to study at U.S. universities, place curbs on Chinese tech companies’ American operations, and limit Chinese purchases of American companies and real estate.

No one should be in any doubt about the stakes: Beijing is looking to hasten the day when it replaces the U.S. as the indispensable Indo-Pacific power. America’s allies in the region are watching—some fearfully—to see whether the time has come to cleave to China and support Beijing’s Belt and Road Initiative. Mr. Trump’s pivot may offer the last chance to forestall such an outcome.

Mr. Auslin is a fellow at the Hoover Institution, Stanford University, and the author of “The End of the Asian Century.”



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