Global Economy

Venezuela's Military Backs Maduro



Venezuela’s military threw its support behind embattled President Nicolás Maduro on Thursday, dealing a significant blow to the U.S. effort to back a parallel government and oust the authoritarian leader.

Defense Minister Vladimir Padrino, flanked by the heads of the country’s armed forces, said the military would oppose any effort to remove Mr. Maduro, who began a second, six-year term this month after elections last year that were widely regarded as a sham. He ended his speech with shouts of “Chávez vive,” a reference to the late socialist strongman Hugo Chávez.

Juan Guaidó, a 35-year-old lawmaker who was recognized by the U.S. and other countries on Wednesday as the country’s legitimate president, formally asked the U.S. for emergency humanitarian aid to ease shortages of food and medicine. U.S. Secretary of State Mike Pompeo said the U.S. is ready to provide $20 million in assistance “as soon as logistically possible.”

The move by Mr. Guaidó, who has gone from a little-known legislator to the face of a swelling opposition movement within weeks, is aimed at building support for a parallel government among ordinary Venezuelans.

Many Western democracies backed Mr. Guaidó, along with multilateral financial institutions like the International Monetary Fund. Mexico, Uruguay and some European governments called for dialogue. Russia, China, Turkey and Cuba lined up to support Mr. Maduro.

Russia and China pushed back against the U.S. recognition of Mr. Guaidó and warned against further inflaming the political crisis in the oil-rich Latin America country, where Moscow risks losing billions of dollars in trade and military investment.

Russ Dallen, director of the Caracas Capital Markets investment bank, said Venezuela owes $20 billion to China. It owes $3.15 billion to the Russian government for arms purchases and another $3.1 billion to Rosneft, a state-controlled oil firm.

Mr. Guaidó is also offering amnesty from prosecution for alleged human-rights abuses and corruption to military officers who support his rival government. Exiled former officers and opposition leaders are working to persuade officers to proclaim their recognition of Mr. Guaidó, but not to remove Mr. Maduro by force, an exiled former top Venezuelan military official said.

“The guys who have the guns matter. That’s what being a de facto leader means,” said James Bosworth, head of Latin America risk-consulting company Hxagon, in reference to Mr. Maduro.

The U.S. recognized Juan Guaidó, Venezuela’s newly appointed National Assembly head, as interim president of the nation, following days of protests against Nicolás Maduro, whose election was widely considered illegitimate. WSJ’s Jason Bellini reports. Photo: Federico Parra/ Agence France-Presse/ Getty Images

Venezuela’s army has long played a key role in politics. A military coup in 1947 ousted a democratically elected president and led to a military dictatorship until another coup in 1958 paved the way for the restoration of democracy.

Mr. Chávez, a former army paratrooper, led a failed coup attempt in 1992. As president, he was briefly detained and ousted in 2002 but as his angry supporters marched in the streets, the coup collapsed and allies in the army restored Mr. Chávez to the presidential palace.

Mr. Guaidó’s bid for power and the international backing it has received is a significant development in Venezuela’s crisis. But many analysts said it will be difficult to dislodge Mr. Maduro as long as he enjoys military support.

In a speech on Wednesday, Mr. Maduro lavished praise on the military. As green-clad troops cheered and waved a Venezuelan flag from a nearby rooftop, Mr. Maduro asked his audience to give “a round of applause for our armed forces, who are always loyal and never traitorous.”

Since Venezuela’s economy began its collapse in 2014, Mr. Maduro has essentially ruled along with the military. He has at least 10 active-duty or former generals as cabinet ministers, and the army runs everything from state-oil firm Petróleos de Venezuela to mining and food imports.

Several key military figures, including the interior minister, Gen. Nestor Reverol, the former head of the national guard, and retired Gen. Hugo Carvajal, the former head of military intelligence, have been indicted by the U.S. for drug trafficking. Others have been punished for corruption and human-rights abuses.

During Mr. Chávez’s time in power, he politicized the military, making sure promotions were contingent on loyalty to him and “Bolivarian” socialist ideology. In 2008, Mr. Chávez made the military adopt the Cuban-derived motto “Patria, Socialismo o Muerte, Venceremos!” or “Fatherland, Socialism or Death, we will triumph!” That same year, the military was renamed the National Bolivarian Armed Force, making clear its ideological identification.

Those who might revolt against Mr. Maduro face a pervasive intelligence unit, overseen by Cuban military advisers, which has snuffed out numerous plots, current and former officers said.

In his six years in office, Mr. Maduro has put intelligence officers in each unit, stripped pensions and benefits for families of officers accused of plotting and thrown some in jail.

“It’s very hard to organize a coup in Venezuela,” said Harold Trinkunas, a Venezuela expert at Stanford University. The military is “divided, corrupt, compromised and closely watched.”

Still, the coordinated recognition of Mr. Guaidó as the true president by the U.S. and others, coupled with massive demonstrations, is meant to ratchet up the pressure on the military, some analysts said.

The U.S. State Department on Thursday ordered the departure of nonemergency U.S. government personnel and dependents from the embassy in Caracas, citing security concerns. The U.S. typically removes all nonessential personnel when security conditions become a concern.

On Wednesday, Mr. Maduro cut diplomatic relations with Washington and ordered U.S. diplomats to leave the country within 72 hours.

The U.S. also is looking at contingency plans for any possible attack against the embassy, an official said.

The U.S. has sought an emergency United Nations Security Council meeting on Saturday to discuss the Venezuela situation. The Council isn’t expected to take action but will debate the situation and the legitimacy of the government.

Speaking at a special meeting of the Organization of American States in Washington on Thursday, Mr. Pompeo called on Western Hemisphere countries to back Mr. Guaidó.

Mr. Guaidó received support from representatives of OAS member countries including Argentina, Paraguay, the Bahamas, Colombia, Ecuador, Honduras, Guatemala and Panama. Countries including Nicaragua and El Salvador support Mr. Maduro.

Tens of thousands of Venezuelans have taken to the streets to demand Mr. Maduro’s resignation in the most meaningful opposition protests since 2017, when at least 124 people were killed, nearly all by security forces. At least seven people were killed and more than 350 arrested in the unrest on Wednesday, according to Foro Penal, a Venezuelan nongovernmental organization. The streets were calm on Thursday.

There is evidence of at least some opposition to Mr. Maduro within the military. This week, two dozen low-ranking National Guard members attacked a Caracas military outpost but were soon overwhelmed and arrested.

Last year, Venezuelan intelligence uncovered what it said was a coup plot by disgruntled Venezuelan military officers to seize control of the capital’s military bases and arrest Mr. Maduro. Authorities quickly arrested nine rebel officers, including the head of the largest armored battalion in the capital, and Mr. Maduro’s former interior minister.

Some reports estimate that as many as 4,000 soldiers have deserted in the past year and many more have requested formal discharges. The government has run ads in Caracas newspapers demanding missing troops return to their posts.

In previous bouts of unrest, the Venezuelan government has been careful to keep the army out of the streets. Instead, the government has relied on armed and masked paramilitary forces, national police and the country’s national guard.

Containing unrest without widespread bloodshed could prove difficult in a country where economic output has fallen by half during the past six years, hyperinflation has ravaged earning power and annihilated savings, and chronic shortages have led to widespread hunger and an exodus so far of some three million Venezuelans. Another three million are forecast to leave this year absent major change.

While the generals live well, the rank-and-file officers have an increasingly difficult time feeding their families. Venezuela’s opposition may be counting on rank-and-file soldiers at the very least refraining from following orders to shoot protesters in coming weeks.

“The point at which the people with guns who can’t feed their families outnumber people with guns who can feed their families—that’s a tipping point,” Mr. Bosworth said.

Write to David Luhnow at david.luhnow@wsj.com and José de Córdoba at jose.decordoba@wsj.com



READ SOURCE

Leave a Reply

This website uses cookies. By continuing to use this site, you accept our use of cookies.