It is much easier to predict the past than guess the future but so far I’ve been extremely fortunate calling the bitcoin (BTC) resurrection and blessed to have accreted an interesting pile of coins.
However, my recent article on June 23 was scarily accurate.
We were here:
It said we would go here:
…and here we are:
So what you and I want to know is, what next?
I can’t keep being right. It doesn’t matter how much I polish my crystal balls, being this right is an unnatural state in any market, even one as inefficient and naive as Bitcoin. However, this is the game we play and we play it with material amounts of money.
I did a forward many year ago to a reprint of an investment classic, How I Made $2,000,000 in the Stock Market by Nicolas Darvas. His system to ride bubbling stocks was to put a box around temporary price equilibrium points in the market action to indicate a continuation of rally or its end. He didn’t think of it like that, but that was what he was doing. Without predicting what happens next this is the way to judge what is happening, but while it is at the equilibrium it doesn’t tell the direction of the next move, until that move is underway.
So right now, it’s a way to trade this situation when the signal kicks off, but we are not able to know now whether it’s going up or down using this idea.
However, that is what we want to know as the price swings 10%-20% up and down.
So we have to look at the setup.
I want to talk about the Trump, Iran/China catalyst, but what do I know of the insides of those situations. BTC’s prices moves tell me more about that than I can read in the media. Bitcoin price action will happen well before the news that drove it meets the media. That was, is and will always be the case in markets.
So what I see is a replay of 2017, itself an archetypal market parabolic. That replay looks to be on a magnified scale which suggests huge highs. Normally that projection would prove the ceiling was already reached as it would be incredible for most assets to be able to rise that far. Yet for Bitcoin this is not a limitation.
Here is a possibility I see. This may as well be my primitive roadmap:
This is not meant to be a tick by tick prediction, the chart is just a crude sketch of how this move could unwind if the BTC price breaks up from the current “equilibrium” point with its loony-tunes volatility.
Make no mistake, this is an incredibly dangerous market. Make sure you are able to sell. Make sure your bitcoin is safe or that the custodian is bullet proof. If you are going to play this game, have a plan and stick to it. Markets don’t care about theories, they have no remorse, they do not stop. Like any captain on an uncharted sea you have to always be vigilant, take observations and soundings and be prepared to tack. You can call it 9 times out of 10 but it only takes one rock to sink you. On such a sea we are now afloat.
In 2018 Chambers won Journalist of the Year in the Business Market Commentary category in the State Street U.K. Institutional Press Awards.