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Why self-driving car is still some distance away


In December, Waymo, the leading driverless-car company, brought out the world’s first commercial robo-taxi service. But for now, the service is only available to about 400 test families in suburban Phoenix, and each of its converted Chrysler minivans still has a person at the wheel in case anything goes awry. “It’s a pretty glaring indication that we’re not there yet,” says Matthew Johnson-Roberson, codirector of the University of Michigan’s Ford Center for Autonomous Vehicles, who’s working with automakers to develop robot rides.

Waymo, owned by Google parent Alphabet and recently valued at $250 billion by Jefferies Research, declined to comment. In a blog post, chief executive officer John Krafcik said the human safety drivers were at work in Arizona to make riders feel more comfortable. Waymo’s timid rollout is the latest speed bump for a technology touted as certain to save the world from road deaths.

As auto and tech giants converge on Las Vegas for the consumer electronics show known as CES, which formally kicks off on Jan 8 and includes a keynote from Krafcik, the seemingly boundless optimism that surrounded driverless cars only a few years ago has been tempered by a slew of persistent technological challenges and big questions about near-term business models, especially as a recession looms. “Most of the automakers are chasing a business model that has yet to be proven — that elusive robo-taxi,” says Craig Giffi, head of consulting firm Deloitte’s US automotive and industrial products practice.

At CES, driverless and auto technology will cover 3,00,000 square feet of floor space, more than the total size of many standalone car shows, and the auto industry is continuing to pour billions into self-driving cars.

Ford Motor CEO Jim Hackett said in November that the market for autonomous vehicles and other mobility services could reach $10 trillion — half the size of US gross domestic product.





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